Manifold Prize Points Review and Promo Code 2024
What is Manifold? Is Manifold legit? Everything you need to know about the prediction market betting app that gives out real cash prizes through Prize Points.
tl;dr: Yes, Manifold is legit — you can earn money by accurately predicting the future of sports, politics, and much more. Here’s a referral link to Manifold: https://manifold.markets?referrer=dglid (Affiliate disclaimer: this article contains this link and others embedded throughout that may benefit me at no cost to you.)
Manifold is the world’s largest prediction market platform. Prediction markets allow you to bet on the outcome of future events. For example, you can bet on a question like “Will the Democrats win the next U.S. presidential election?” If you bet YES and the Democrats win, you get rewarded. If they don’t, you lose your bet.
I am an early adopter of Manifold, an active user (“trader”) since February 2022, just a few months after Manifold was founded in December 2021. I have seen first-hand how Manifold has evolved and have written this post to answer any and all questions about how it works.
Have a question not answered here? Let me know in the comments or send me a direct message on Manifold— I read every one.
How does Manifold work?
Sign up for Manifold on desktop or via their mobile app (iOS, Android) using your Google account. You will be prompted to go through some onboarding steps to get acquainted with Manifold.
Upon signing up, your account will start with 600 “mana”, Manifold’s play currency. You can always see how much mana you have near your avatar, or by visiting your profile.
You will use this mana play currency to place “trades” on prediction markets, simply referred to on Manifold as “questions” about the future.
Currently active questions are shown in the main Home feed. The most unique thing about Manifold is that any user can create a question about the future. As such, the questions you’ll see in your Home feed and throughout Manifold will vary widely, from serious questions about presidential elections to personal questions about whether two people will get married.
Dive into any question to see more details and to trade on the outcome of the question.
The most straightforward type of question is a “Yes/No” question. Here’s what it looks like (on desktop; mobile looks nearly identical):
This question is asking whether Joe Biden will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Nearly five thousand Manifold users have traded in this market; some are betting YES, that Biden will win, and others are betting NO, that he won’t win. This nets out to a 52% chance that he will win, according to Manifold traders.
Like everyone else, you can also trade on this question! Clicking or tapping the green “Bet YES” button prompts you to enter how much mana you want to bet:
In this example, you’d be betting 10 mana that Joe Biden will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. If that happens, as the green button now says, you’ll receive 18 mana as a reward for predicting correctly. If you’re wrong, you’ll lose your 10 mana.
The experience is similar if you click or tap the red “Bet NO” button:
In this case where you’re betting “NO”, the red button tells you that you’d double your 10 mana into 20 mana if Joe Biden does not win the election.
Once you place your bet, you’ll see the details below the graph. Using the example above, if I bet 10 mana that Joe Biden will not win the election at the current 52% chance, I now see the details of my trade:
Congratulations, you’ve made your first trade! What happens next?
Option 1: Do nothing and “hold” your bet until the question resolves (in this case, once the election happens and we know whether Joe Biden won the election or not). When that happens, you’ll get a notification like this:
Option 2: Sell your “shares” in this question whenever you want by clicking/tapping the “Sell” button. You won’t get the 20 mana that you’d get by staying to the end to win your bet, but you’d get some amount of mana that corresponded to the most recent odds. All other Manifold users can bet on the same question, so the odds will constantly fluctuate up and down according to the wisdom of the crowd.
Congratulations, you now know the basics of making bets about the future on Manifold! From here, you can explore all the different questions that Manifold users have created about the future, and even create your own.
How do Manifold Prize Points work?
In May 2024, Manifold announced that it was expanding beyond solely play money prediction markets and into real cash prizes for good predictions, expected to launch in Summer 2024.
Here’s how Prize Points work:
Some of the questions on Manifold are designated as “Prize Markets” that pay out “Prize Points” instead of mana.
These Prize Points will eventually be redeemable for real cash to your bank account once that functionality is implemented, expected sometime in Summer 2024.
An important distinction here between mana and Prize Points is that you can only earn Prize Points if you hold your bets all the way until the question is resolved, and only if your bet is correct.
In our previous example with the question about Joe Biden winning the election, you’d have to hold your 10 mana until the election has happened; if you bet NO and are correct (he loses), you would receive 20 Prize Points that you can then redeem for cash.
Is Manifold legit?
Yes, Manifold is a legit company in operation since December 2021 with full-time employees and an office in San Francisco. They are funded by grants and venture capital. They are tremendously transparent — their finances, including employee salaries are available publicly on Notion.
How is Manifold legal?
Manifold operates legally under a sweepstakes model. Sweepstakes models, where a company hosts promotional games with prizes for winners, have been used for decades worldwide. These promotional games are used to promote the sales of a company’s products.
Perhaps the most popular sweepstakes in the U.S. is McDonald’s Monopoly. McDonald’s has promoted the sale of its fast food by giving out accompanying Monopoly-themed tokens, for example on the back of an order of french fries. If you collected the right combination of tokens, you were a winner and could submit your tokens for low-level prizes like a free order of french fries to high-level prizes like cash, gift cards, or even cars!
In Manifold’s case, the prediction markets/questions about the future are their promotional games used to encourage people to buy mana, the play currency used on the platform to place bets on questions. Some of these promotional games are designated as Prize Markets, for which winners receive Prize Points. These Prize Points are then redeemable for cash and other prizes.
Sweepstakes are different from casinos, lotteries, and other gambling organizations in this important aspect: no purchase is necessary to participate in a promotional game and be eligible to win a prize.
For McDonald’s Monopoly, while buying french fries was the most common way of gathering McDonald’s Monopoly tokens, one could also send a letter via snail mail to McDonald’s to be sent back free tokens. Of course very few people actually went that route — most simply purchased food from McDonald’s and collected tokens that way.
Manifold will likely work in a similar fashion, giving users a way to collect Prize Points freely, though likely at a minimal frequency and amount. I expect most users on Manifold will obtain their Prize Points by betting on prediction markets that resolve in their favor.
Learn more about their use of a sweepstakes model from their announcement:
Online sweepstakes are legal in the United States, provided they adhere to both federal and state regulations. These regulations require a “no purchase necessary” method of entry. Sweepstakes platforms like Chumba and Fliff have been operating since 2017 and 2019 (respectively) and process billions of dollars in annual revenue. Sweepstakes usage is limited or restricted in a few states (e.g. HI, ID, NV, TN, WA).
Other Manifold FAQs
Many questions about Manifold are answered on their About page and FAQ page. I’ll answer some questions in more detail below.
How to cash out on Manifold? / How to make a Manifold withdrawal?
As of this writing (May 2024), the ability to cash out or withdraw money via Prize Points are not yet implemented on Manifold. Once this is implemented (expected Summer 2024), the Manifold team has announced that you can expect to go through a Know Your Customer (“KYC”) process before then being able to connect to your bank account and initiate a withdrawal. KYC involves providing proof of your legal name, date of birth, address, and identification number (like a Social Security Number). KYC is used to ensure Manifold’s compliance with federal and state regulations intended to combat activities like money laundering and terrorism financing.
Is Manifold mana real money?
No, mana is the play currency that can traded in (bet on) prediction markets (questions) on Manifold.
However, mana converts to Prize Points when held through the end of certain prediction markets called Prize Markets.
Are Manifold Prize Points real money?
No, but Prize Points are sweepstakes rewards that can be redeemed for cash and other prizes, so is the closest thing to real money on the platform.
It’s expected that 10,000 Prize Points will be redeemable to $9.50 USD. Rule of thumb: every 1,000 Prize Points is roughly equal to $1 (a little less that acts as a sort of “fee” to Manifold).
Can I buy mana and then immediately cash it out? / Can I make a deposit and then withdraw my money?
No, you won’t be able to do this. The process of getting money from a purchase on Manifold will almost certainly be something like this:
- Purchase 10,000 mana for $13.99 USD on desktop/Android mobile or $14.99 on iOS. Note: you do not have to buy mana; you’ll get some “starter” mana when you create an account on Manifold. If you’ve lost all your mana, you would have to buy mana to continue to “play” on Manifold.
- Bet your 10,000 mana on a Prize Market on Manifold, such as a question like “Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US presidential election?” Depending on the crowd probability of that prediction market when you place your bet, you’ll have a certain payout if you’re correct. For example, if the odds are ~50% when you place your bet, you’ll likely be promised a payout of 20,000 Prize Points if you win your bet. You don’t have to calculate any of this — Manifold will tell you when you place your bet how much you stand to win.
- Once the Prize Market resolves, you get the corresponding payout in Prize Points if you bet on the correct side. For example, if you bet 10,000 mana on Joe Biden winning the election when he was at 50% odds and he does win, you get ~20,000 Prize Points.
- After going through the KYC process and connecting your bank account, you will likely be able to redeem those 20,000 Prize Points for ~$20 USD (a little less after fees, likely something like $19.50).
This slightly convoluted process is how Manifold avoids prohibitive regulation that would qualify it as gambling app— you can’t just deposit money and then withdraw it. You have to purchase play money, participate in a “game”, and then be rewarded Prize Points that are redeemable for cash.
Furthermore, depending on your jurisdiction, local laws may not allow you to redeem Prize Points for cash. Manifold will guide you through the process for your specific situation.
What are Manifold legal states? / Where can I participate?
Manifold itself is available everywhere and expected to remain so even after they implement sweepstakes features. Consider it like every other game where you get some play money/points (mana) for free when signing up and can make additional in-app purchases to buy more play money.
However, there are some jurisdictions where Manifold will not allow you to receive the coveted Prize Points that are redeemable for cash and other prizes. From their announcement, they mention that sweepstakes usage is limited or restricted in a few states (e.g. HI, ID, NV, TN, WA) and that outside of the U.S. there are a few provinces, jurisdictions, and countries that prohibit sweepstakes. We’ll have to wait for more details to know for sure how certain states and non-U.S. jurisdictions are affected.
I’m ready to play! Where’s the Manifold login?
Log in to Manifold by going http://manifold.markets or by opening the Manifold mobile app.
Have a question not answered here? Let me know in the comments or send me a direct message on Manifold — I read every one.
