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The Ultimate Guide to Filling Out Your Bracket for March Madness

Plus, the bracket I’ll be using to win my office pool

David Glidden
18 min readMar 13, 2018
Photo credit: Luis Blanco

Author’s note: The 2019 tournament optimal bracket and spreadsheets, based on the same below methodology, is now available here. Follow me and subscribe to get my bracket delivered directly to your inbox each year once ready.

Author’s note: The tournament has ended! See my recap of how my bracket did in my post “How I Correctly Picked Villanova to Win the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

Author’s note: This post, and my spreadsheet, has been updated using fresh data from Wednesday, March 14th as of 7:10pm.

While the math has changed, the recommended picks in the Optimal Bracket have not. My recommendation remains picking Villanova to beat Virginia to win it all, with Duke and Gonzaga rounding out the Final Four. Find my final bracket as submitted in the ESPN Tournament Challenge here.

Likewise, the ESPN People’s Bracket has not changed.

The FiveThirtyEight bracket had only one change, but a significant one. Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver announced that “with the injury to Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter, Villanova is now the “favorite” to win the men’s tournament at 18%.” Virginia dropped from 18% chance of winning the

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David Glidden
David Glidden

Written by David Glidden

In the District of Columbia with @egbarnett. Ops at @TheoremOne.

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